In the rocky terrain of China’s Sichuan province, a massive X-shaped building is quickly rising, its crisscrossed arms stretching outward in a bold, futuristic design. From a satellite’s view, it could be just another ambitious megaproject in a country known for building fast and thinking big. But to some observers of Chinese tech development, it’s yet more evidence that China may be on the verge of pulling ahead in one of the most consequential technological races of our time: the quest to achieve commercial nuclear fusion.
Fusion—the process that powers stars—promises nearly limitless clean energy, without the radioactive waste and meltdown risk of fission. But building a reactor that can sustain fusion requires an extraordinary level of scientific and engineering precision.
The X-shaped facility under construction in Mianyang, Sichuan, appears to be a massive laser-based fusion facility; its four long arms, likely laser bays, could focus intense energy on a central chamber. Analysts who’ve examined satellite imagery and procurement records say it resembles the U.S. National Ignition Facility (NIF), but is significantly larger. Others have speculated that it could be a massive Z-pinch machine—a fusion-capable device that uses an extremely powerful electrical current to compress plasma into a narrow, dense column.
“Even if China is not ahead right now,” says Decker Eveleth, an analyst at the research nonprofit CNA, “when you look at how quickly they build things, and the financial willpower to build these facilities at scale, the trajectory is not favorable for the U.S.”
Fusion is a marathon, not a sprint—and China is pacing itself to win.
Other Chinese plasma-physics programs have also been gathering momentum. In January, researchers at the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST)—nicknamed the “Artificial Sun”—reported maintaining plasma at over 100 million °C for more than 17 minutes. (A tokamak is a doughnut-shaped device that uses magnetic fields to confine plasma for nuclear fusion.) Operational since 2006, EAST is based in Hefei, in Anhui province, and serves as a testbed for technologies that will feed into next-generation fusion reactors.
Not far from EAST, the Chinese government is building the Comprehensive Research Facility for Fusion Technology (CRAFT), a 40-hectare complex that will develop the underlying engineering for future fusion machines. Results from EAST and CRAFT will feed into the design of the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR), envisioned as a critical bridge between experimental and commercial fusion power. The engineering design of CFETR was completed in 2020 and calls for using high-temperature superconducting magnets to scale up what machines like EAST have begun.
Meanwhile, on Yaohu Science Island in Nanchang, in central China, the federal government is preparing to launch Xinghuo—the world’s first fusion-fission hybrid power plant. Slated for grid connection by 2030, the reactor will use high-energy neutrons from fusion reactions to trigger fission in surrounding materials, boosting overall energy output and potentially reducing long-lived radioactive waste. Xinghuo aims to generate 100 megawatts of continuous electricity, enough to power approximately 83,000 U.S.-size homes.
Why China Is Doubling Down on Fusion
Why such an aggressive push? Fusion energy aligns neatly with three of China’s top priorities: securing domestic energy, reducing carbon emissions, and winning the future of high technology—a pillar of President Xi Jinping’s “great rejuvenation” agenda.
“Fusion is a next-generation energy technology,” says Jimmy Goodrich, a senior advisor for technology analysis at Rand Corp. “Whoever masters it will gain enormous advantages—economically, strategically, and from a national-security perspective.”
The lengthy development required to commercialize fusion also aligns with China’s political economy. Fusion requires patient capital. The Chinese government doesn’t need to answer to voters or shareholders, and so it’s uniquely suited to fund fusion R&D and wait for a payoff that may take decades.
In the United States, by contrast, fusion momentum has shifted away from government-funded projects to private companies like Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Helion, and TAE Technologies. These fusion startups have captured billions in venture capital, riding a wave of interest from tech billionaires hoping to power, among other things, the data centers of an AI-driven future. But that model has vulnerabilities. If demand for energy-hungry data centers slows or market sentiment turns, funding could dry up quickly.
“The future of fusion may come down to which investment model proves more resilient,” says Goodrich. “If there’s a slowdown in AI or data center demand, U.S. [fusion] startups could see funding evaporate. In contrast, Chinese fusion firms are unlikely to face the same risk, as sustained government support can shield them from market turbulence.”
The talent equation is shifting, too. In March, plasma physicist Chang Liu left the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory to join a fusion program at Peking University, where he’d earned his undergraduate degree. At the Princeton lab, Liu had pioneered a promising method to reduce the impact of damaging runaway electrons in tokamak plasmas.
“The future of fusion may come down to which investment model proves more resilient.” —Jimmy Goodrich, Rand Corp.
Liu’s move exemplifies a broader trend, says Goodrich. “When the Chinese government prioritizes a sector for development, a surge of financing and incentives quickly follows,” he says. “For respected scientists and engineers in the U.S. or Europe, the chance to [move to China to] see their ideas industrialized and commercialized can be a powerful draw.”
Meanwhile, China is growing its own talent. Universities and labs in Hefei, Mianyang, and Nanchang are training a generation of physicists and engineers to lead in fusion science. Within a decade, China could have a vast, self-sustaining pipeline of experts.
The scale and ambition of China’s fusion effort is hard to miss. Analysts say the facility in Mianyang could be 50 percent larger than NIF, which in 2022 became the first fusion-energy project to achieve scientific breakeven—producing 3.15 megajoules of energy from a 2.05-megajoule input.
There are military implications as well. CNA’s Eveleth notes that while the Mianyang project could aid energy research, it also will boost China’s ability to simulate nuclear weapons tests. “Whether it’s a laser fusion facility or a Z-pinch machine, you’re looking at a pretty significant increase in Chinese capability to conduct miniaturized weapons experiments and boost their understanding of various materials used within weapons,” says Eveleth.
These new facilities are likely to surpass U.S. capabilities for certain kinds of weapons development, Eveleth warns. While Los Alamos and other U.S. national labs are aging, China is building fresh and installing the latest technologies in shiny new buildings.
The United States still leads in scientific creativity and startup diversity, but the U.S. fusion effort remains comparatively fragmented. During the Biden administration, the U.S. government invested about $800 million annually in fusion research. China, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, is investing up to $1.5 billion per year—although some analysts say that the amount could be twice as high.
Fusion is a marathon, not a sprint—and China is pacing itself to win. Backed by a coordinated national strategy, generous funding, and a rapidly expanding talent base, Beijing isn’t just chasing fusion energy—it’s positioning itself to dominate the field.
“It’s a renaissance moment for advanced energy in China,” says Goodrich, who contends that unless the United States ramps up public investment and support, it may soon find itself looking eastward at the future of fusion. The next few years will be decisive, he and others say. Reactors are rising. Scientists are relocating. Timelines are tightening. Whichever nation first harnesses practical fusion energy won’t just light up cities. It may also reshape the balance of global power.
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