The Evolution of Holiday Shopping: Trends, Predictions, and Consumer Behavior for 2024

As the leaves begin to change and the air turns crisp, many consumers find themselves grappling with an undeniable truth: holiday shopping is starting earlier every year. Traditionally, the holiday shopping season kicked off on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. However, recent surveys reveal a significant shift in consumer behavior, suggesting that shoppers are now embracing the spirit of giving much earlier in the year.

The Shift to Early Holiday Shopping

According to a recent survey conducted by Bankrate, nearly half of Americans—48%—plan to start their winter holiday gift buying in October. This marks a notable change in shopping habits, with some consumers even beginning their holiday preparations as early as August (12%) or September (13%). In contrast, only 15% of shoppers intend to wait until December to make their purchases. This trend has led to a growing debate about whether retailers or consumers are driving the early holiday shopping phenomenon.

Journalist Ben Kesslen highlights that while retailers have often been blamed for extending the holiday shopping season—evident in the early appearance of festive displays and sales—recent data suggests that consumers may now be the primary force behind this shift. Helen Atkinson, another journalist, notes that both retailers and consumers are adapting to the changing landscape. Retailers are stocking up earlier for peak season, while consumers are opting for more economical shipping options to save money. This mutual adjustment indicates a new dynamic in the retail environment, where both parties are keen to ensure they get what they want in time for the holidays.

The Bargain Hunting Mentality

One of the most significant factors influencing early holiday shopping is the current economic climate. Kesslen reports that 34% of surveyed shoppers indicated that inflation is altering their shopping habits. As consumers become increasingly price-sensitive, bargain hunting has emerged as a primary motivation for starting holiday shopping early. Pawan Joshi, Senior Vice President of products and strategy at e2open, emphasizes that consumers are looking to avoid extra shipping costs, opting for slower delivery options to save money.

This shift in consumer behavior reflects a broader trend of financial caution. With many shoppers feeling the pinch of rising prices, the desire to find deals and discounts has never been more pronounced. As a result, retailers may need to adapt their strategies to cater to this bargain-hunting mentality, offering promotions and incentives that resonate with cost-conscious consumers.

Predictions for the 2024 Holiday Shopping Season

While the early start to holiday shopping may signal optimism for the retail sector, the prevailing trend of bargain hunting tempers expectations for a robust holiday season. Kesslen notes that only 24% of shoppers anticipate spending more this year compared to last, with one-third planning to spend less. Interestingly, younger consumers, particularly Gen Z and millennials, are more likely to report intentions to increase their spending, while older generations exhibit more caution.

Several industry experts have weighed in on what to expect for the 2024 holiday shopping season:

• Bain & Company predicts a modest growth of 3.0% in total retail sales, with in-store sales growing by 0.5% and non-store sales by 9.5%. This subdued growth reflects a general freeze in consumer spending across all income levels.

• Salsify reports that 65% of shoppers plan to spend about the same as they did in 2023, with only 21% intending to spend less and 15% likely to spend more.

• Coveo found that 59% of consumers plan to cut back on everyday purchases to expand their gifting budgets, indicating a prioritization of holiday spending over regular expenses.

• Deloitte forecasts a moderate increase in retail sales, estimating a growth of 2.3% to 3.3% as consumers continue to navigate inflationary pressures.

• Vericast highlights a conflicting mindset among consumers, with 41% planning to splurge on gifts for themselves despite tightening their budgets elsewhere. This internal conflict is particularly pronounced among younger generations.

• eMarketer predicts record-breaking U.S. holiday retail e-commerce sales, estimating a 9.5% increase from 2023, while Adobe offers a slightly lower prediction of $240.8 billion in online spending, driven by discounts and mobile shopping.

Concluding Thoughts

The 2024 holiday shopping season is shaping up to be a unique and complex landscape, characterized by a "conflicted" consumer mindset. As shoppers grapple with the desire to celebrate while also being mindful of their budgets, the outcome of this year’s holiday shopping will hinge on their decisions about spending versus saving.

Commerce journalist Jason Goldberg notes that the dominance of major retailers like Walmart and Amazon complicates growth for smaller businesses, creating uncertainty in the market. Additionally, the upcoming presidential election may further impact consumer spending, as economic anxiety often leads to more cautious financial behavior.

As consumers increasingly prioritize savings and navigate the challenges of inflation, the defining characteristic of this holiday shopping season will be the balance between celebration and financial prudence. With 42% of shoppers planning to shop almost exclusively online and a significant portion expecting to incur debt for gifts, the trend of early bargain hunting is likely to continue, shaping the retail landscape for years to come.

In this evolving environment, retailers must remain agile, adapting their strategies to meet the changing needs and preferences of consumers who are determined to make the most of their holiday shopping experience—without breaking the bank.